Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 27.873447 30.899184 34.343102 38.606334 43.819704 50.095936 58.400904
2025-05-25 23.205602 26.960272 31.602249 37.942643 46.696078 58.920659 78.531159
2025-06-01 20.190238 24.232157 29.533405 37.338128 49.247419 68.294266 105.718741
2025-06-08 18.045580 22.181572 27.852524 36.710738 51.416796 78.072967 143.158814
2025-06-15 16.474418 20.634517 26.545194 36.244976 53.590286 89.042690 199.654088
2025-06-22 15.288444 19.451590 25.547557 35.993095 55.993280 102.085089 295.428242
2025-06-29 14.194133 18.267667 24.367087 35.168053 57.002676 112.779132 433.280304
2025-07-06 13.799859 18.060330 24.653911 36.930231 63.999632 146.918924 1227.945271
2025-07-13 13.063065 17.257279 23.871068 36.550457 66.035864 168.235606 4088.882527
2025-07-20 12.526855 16.713763 23.449200 36.779785 69.704368 202.830273 NaN
2025-07-27 12.066707 16.248730 23.103446 37.090730 73.780140 250.028887 NaN
2025-08-03 11.600403 15.736538 22.619412 37.022153 76.800213 302.421810 NaN
2025-08-10 11.094611 15.133364 21.930853 36.430152 78.130881 351.741127 NaN
2025-08-17 10.725946 14.731665 21.570728 36.521319 81.888760 452.410582 NaN
2025-08-24 10.345414 14.286091 21.090591 36.261575 84.393099 570.040073 NaN
2025-08-31 9.972779 13.832030 20.557586 35.798276 86.012716 709.853231 NaN
2025-09-07 9.639119 13.425582 20.083083 35.410330 87.854243 919.298667 NaN
2025-09-14 9.350428 13.080352 19.699282 35.193903 90.422364 1298.021210 NaN
2025-09-21 9.021293 12.649788 19.121177 34.409799 90.169538 1606.995873 NaN
2025-09-28 8.972671 12.700171 19.482939 36.114077 102.956664 9987.900786 NaN
2025-10-05 8.721447 12.383256 19.091555 35.750361 105.071457 88413.073431 NaN
2025-10-12 8.541186 12.182962 18.920987 35.972498 110.808034 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 8.378382 12.005729 18.784396 36.272702 117.486097 NaN NaN